What is a Commodity?
Raw materials, typically the natural resources producers and manufacturers use to create finished products, are called commodities. They are physical goods bought, sold and traded, unlike securities, such as stocks and bonds, which are financial contracts. Weather patterns, supply and demand, economic trends, currency exchange rates, geopolitical events, government policies & regulations, energy prices, speculation and investor sentiment may impact the prices of commodities.
The four primary categories of commodities are given below.
Energy: Materials used in energy production fall under this category and include oil, fossil fuels, electricity, water, solar power, fossil fuels, and other energy-based resources.
Metals: Base or industrial metals include iron ore, tin, copper, aluminium and zinc and are used by manufacturing industries. Precious metals, such as gold, silver, platinum and palladium, are typically used to fabricate jewellery.
Agriculture: Produce grown in agricultural settings falls under this category and includes edible items, such as grain, fruit, vegetables, coffee, cocoa and sugar, and nonedible ones, including cotton, palm oil and rubber.
Livestock: Live animals, including horses, chickens, sheep, cows, and other domesticated animals, are examples of livestock commodities.
Endogenous & Exogenous Events That Influence Commodity Trade
Endogenous events are caused by factors directly linked to the commodity or its trading environment and include changes in consumption patterns, production and inventory levels, speculative trading, transportation and storage and seasonality of production or consumption. Exogenous events are typically driven by macroeconomic, geopolitical or other global factors, such as currency movements and weather patterns, which are external to commodities markets and not directly related to the specific commodity being traded. Their impact on the markets is indirect.
What is Volatility?
Volatility describes the characteristic of a market or security’s price variance to undergo periods of unpredictable price movements, which can sometimes be sharp and either upward or downward. In short, it is the degree of an asset’s price variance over a specific period. Statistically, volatility is quantified by the standard deviation of a market or security’s annualised returns over a given period. It signifies the rate of price increase or decrease. The statistical measure of volatility helps define the parameters to assess the risk versus reward profile of assets. High volatility describes a situation wherein the price fluctuates rapidly and substantially over a short time, touching new highs and lows. In contrast, a slow movement with smaller fluctuations, higher or lower, or relative stability signifies low volatility.
Why are Commodities More Volatile Than Other Assets?
Commodity Traders and investors must understand and monitor the volatility of commodities since they tend to be highly volatile. Generally, commodities in the energies group display the highest volatility, while agricultural products show the least dramatic price swings. Some significant factors contributing to the high volatility of commodities are described below.
Liquidity: The trading volume and liquidity of commodities on futures exchanges are much less than that of equity, bond, and currency markets. As a result, the volatility of commodities markets tends to be higher.
Nature: Natural occurrences, such as weather patterns and natural disasters, directly affect commodity prices worldwide, particularly since commodities are related to agriculture, energy and natural resources. For instance, droughts, floods, hurricanes or frost can cause extensive crop damage, reducing yields and supply and hiking prices of certain commodities, such as wheat, cotton, coffee, cocoa, sugar, corn and soybeans. Disease outbreaks among livestock are another example of how natural factors may cause greater volatility in commodities markets. The supply and prices of oil and gas or metals and mining commodities can be impacted when natural disasters occur in areas of production. However, the impact of natural factors on commodities markets occurs in conjunction with other market factors, such as supply and demand dynamics, global economic trends and geopolitical events.
Supply & Demand: Commodity production tends to be geographically concentrated within specific regions. For instance, crop cultivation depends on soil and weather conditions in a certain area and metal extraction or oil drilling on reserves in the earth’s crust. However, the demand for these commodities is universal. Consequently, the supply and demand dynamics generated by localised production and global demand for raw materials contribute to their high volatility. Global economic trends, geopolitical events, technological advancements, and weather conditions also influence supply and demand.
Geopolitics: The concentration of production of commodities or commodity reserves also means that political unrest in one region can create a domino effect on prices globally, leading to high volatility. Wars or violence also impact transport, logistics and the supply chain, which are crucial to the distribution of commodities from production areas to consumption zones situated worldwide. Government subsidies, tariffs and other politically-motivated measures also increase the volatility of commodities.
Leverage: Commodity trade or investment commonly occurs via futures markets, known to offer greater leverage for commodities than for other asset classes. Buyers or sellers of futures contracts are required to make only small down payments or good faith deposits (margins) to gain control over a much larger position in the commodities market than the initial investment. This leverage results in magnified potential gains or losses, which leads to high volatility. Leverage is typically expressed as a ratio of how much a trader can control to the capital invested. Initial margin rates are generally a percentage of the total position value and are established by the broker in compliance with regulations. Margin requirements can vary across commodities and be subject to change for the same commodity.
Methods of Commodity Trading
Commodities futures: The most popular method of trading commodities is through a futures exchange. A futures contract entails an agreement to buy or sell a commodity based on its predicted and predetermined trading price at a specified date in the future. A futures contract buyer is obliged to purchase and receive the underlying commodity on the expiration of the futures contract. The seller of the futures contract assumes the obligation to provide and deliver the underlying commodity when the contract expires. Commercial or institutional users of the commodities and speculative investors use futures contracts for any commodities category. When futures are in a state of contango, their future prices are higher than current ones. When futures are in a state of backwardation, commodity prices for a commodity are higher now than at a future date.
Commodity options: This method offers flexibility and uses derivatives based on futures contracts for the underlying asset. Options contracts offer buyers or sellers the right, without the obligation, to trade the underlying commodity at its strike price, which is a specified price on a pre-decided date in the future. The contract is profitable if the price movement moves towards the strike price by the expiry date but will incur a loss of the money paid for the contract if the price movement is against the position.
Purchase of physical commodities: Although less frequent, purchasing and possessing a physical commodity is still feasible. Although physical commodities are typically more expensive than investments in contracts, investors commonly buy precious metals, such as gold, and store them securely.
Commodities stocks: Investing in the stock of a business that directly deals with commodities is typically less risky than commodity or futures purchases.
Commodities ETFs: A commodity ETF (exchange-traded fund) comprises futures or asset-backed contracts which track the performance of commodities or commodity indices. While some ETFs focus on particular commodities, others may be broad-based, tracking a diversified basket. Buying a commodity ETF does not give ownership of the physical asset itself but that of a set of contracts the commodity backs. Investors typically buy commodity ETFs while hedging against inflation but must thoroughly research aspects such as the ETF’s goals, underlying assets, performance history, expense ratio and trading volume.
Commodity pools: Commodity pools are investment vehicles in the form of limited partnerships managed by commodity pool operators (CPOs). Money is collected from investors, pooled and invested in futures contracts and options for commodities. The investment risk of each investor is in proportion to their financial input to the fund. A closed fund requires equal contributions from all participants. In compliance with regulatory requirements, CPOs keep systematic records of investors, transactions and other pools operated by them, distributing periodic account statements and annual financial reports to members. Advantages for investors include professional advice from a CTA (commodity trading advisor) employed by the pool. The pool, which is a private investment structure, is operated by its manager as a single entity to gain leverage in trades and optimise profit potential. Commodity pools are unlike mutual funds in that they are not publicly traded and potential investors must be approved to buy into them.
Commodity Exchanges Around the World
Among the largest commodity exchanges worldwide are the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in the US, the London Metal Exchange in the UK, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange in Japan, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange in China.
Current Scenario
The employment outlook of a particular profession may be impacted by diverse factors, such as the time of year (for seasonal jobs), location, employment turnover (when people leave current jobs), occupational growth (when new roles are created), size of the occupation, and industry-specific trends and events that affect overall employment.
Overall, the employment for Commodity Traders is anticipated to increase by 10% until 2031, which is higher than what is typical for other professions. Global economic trends, including international trade policies, inflation and interest rates, drive commodity prices and trade. Understanding, tracking and adapting strategies and decisions to dynamic market conditions, regulatory changes and the evolving needs of clients and firms may continue to be critical skills for Commodity Traders seeking employment.
Given technological advancements, such as automation, artificial intelligence and algorithmic trading, that boost efficiency, reduce cost and strengthen risk management, Commodity Traders must stay versatile and become well-versed in quantitative and analytical skills. Their knowledge, experience and judgment will likely remain valuable to clients in helping them navigate commodities markets that may continue to be volatile.
Sustainability is likely to become a greater focus in investment strategies and decisions. Commodity Traders with knowledge of ESG (environmental, social, and governance) factors may have a competitive edge in the workplace.
Potential Pros & Cons of Freelancing vs Full-Time Employment
Freelancing Commodity Traders have more flexible work schedules and locations. They fully own the business and can select their projects and clients. However, they experience inconsistent work and cash flow, which means more responsibility, effort and risk.
On the other hand, full-time Commodity Traders have company-sponsored health benefits, insurance, and retirement plans. They have job security with a fixed, reliable source of income and guidance from their bosses. Yet, they may experience boredom due to a lack of flexibility, ownership, and variety.
When deciding between freelancing or being a full-time employee, consider the pros and cons to see what works best for you.