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L'inflazione cinese

  • Note di Apprendimento
  • Revisione degli argomenti
    Momoh Mohamed T.
    SL
    Momoh Mohamed T.

    Given that the Chinese Central Bank is printing yuan in order to keep it devalued to other foreign currencies --especially relative to the dollar-- a question that may have jumped into your brain is: "Is this causing inflation?" And when I'm talking about inflation, I'm talking about price inflation: Is it making a basket of goods in China more expensive? And the other type of inflation that the word 'inflation' is sometimes referring to is 'monetary inflation,' that by definition is increasing. They are definitely increasing the money supply, but is it making the price of goods and services in China more expensive? And to answer that question I have this article here from the NYTimes, by Keith Bradsher, and he writes, "In China, consumer prices were 5.1% higher in November than a year earlier." Remember, in the US we try to target inflation to be between 1 and 3%. So, the official government data--this is according to official government data-- they admit that their inflation is at 5.1%. But the next sentence is even more interesting: "And many economists say the official figures actually understate the rate of inflation, which might in reality be twice as high." And there are tons of ways to engineer the actual inflation depending on what the basket of goods is and how you adjust for things "Now, though, that cheap currency policy seems to be reaching its limits. The extra renminbi [and this is a point of confusion when talking about the currency of China... The renminbi is the name of the currency, while the Yuan is the name people use when they say, "Hey, I gave you five yuan." Or, "You owe me five yuan." They wouldn't say, "You owe me five renminbi." And a good analogy is: if you go to Great Britain and buy something, they'll say, "You owe five pounds." So, in Great Britain, five pounds is what they say, when you're actually buying something, but the name of the currency is called the 'sterling.' It's kind of like, people the 'dollar' 'US Legal Tender.' That's the equivalent of 'renminbi,' whereas the yuan might be like the dollar. So five pounds is called the sterling, five yuan is called the renminbi. So, they're saying that the extra renminbi are feeding inflation. That is, starting to undermine exporters' price competitiveness. Just as a stronger renminbi would do if Beijing were not intervening to begin with. So the whole reason why they're printing this money is to keep the currency devalued. But that is making things more expensive, in terms of yuan. So, in the end, that's kinda counter-acting some of this cheap currency policy... it's making their exports more expensive. "Money supply figures for December, which the central bank released on Tuesday, showed that cash and bank deposits were increasing at a rate twice as fast as even China's soaring economy. So, if you increase the money supply roughly in line with the growth in the economy then you wouldn't experience too much inflation, but they're experiencing it twice as fast. " Ever more renminbi are available to buy goods and services." So you see, they deliberately trying to keep their currency devalued, but they're reaching kinda a breaking-point where they won't be able to do it as aggressively going forward.

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