Backwardation alcista o bajista
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Backwardation alcista o bajista

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If a commodoty trader tells you that a market is in backwardation, they are essentially saying that it
costs more to buy whatever commodoty they are talking about now, so now it costs more than it would to
buy it later; to go into a futures contract to buy that whatever that commodity may be, silver, gold, or oil; to buy it later.
So, later is cheaper. So the question you might ask yourself, or any trader may ask themselves:
Is this bullish or is this bearish? Is this a bullish situation? And there is no obvious rule of thumb
here, but if someone says, "look, to get something now costs more than to get something later, what does
that tell you about what is happening in the market?" Well it tells you that people are desperate. So
Because if they were not desperate, the rational thing to do would be to wait a little while and just
get it cheaper for later or if you don't need that oil right now or if you don't need that corn right
now, or if you dont need that gold right now, you could say, "look, I could enter into a futures contract
for delivery of that gold or oil or corn or whatever it is at a later date for a cheaper price and I
wouldn't even need to store it between now and then." So if people were rational and weren't desperate,
this wouldn't happen, but because they are willing to do this, they are willing to pay more now for a
future delivery date it shows you that there might be some type of shortage. In the case of oil, maybe
the oil supply hs been disrupted somehow. In the case of corn, for whatever reason some crops have been
destroyed and people need to eat and all the rest. For commodotys that aren't used, so to speak, like
gold if you see backwardation there I wouldn't say that, well it's definitely still desperation, but
its not out of a core need, if gold goes into backwardation it is more because of some irrational desire
to have their hands on the gold now than have their hands on the gold later. Maybe they think society
is going to collapse and the future delivery dates of gold arent actually going to hold up. Who knows
what they are? So, in general, when people talk about backwardation, because of this desperation in t
the market, people tend to perceive it as a bullish signal. Obviously if people are desperate there is
demand for this thing. My arguent is that you cannot just look at one tea leaf out of a bunch of tea
leafs and say whether it is bullish or bearish, but what you could say is that there is something somewhat
abnormal going on in the market due to some type of desperation. It is a little less irrational if it
is due to storage, but it could be very irrational if it is due to just wanting your hands on it. Because
frankly, if you wanted to buy gold just for the sake of investing in gold, you aren't going to eat it
or use it to fuel your car or anything like that, it would make complete sense... or even better, if
you already held gold in this type of a market that is undergoing backwardation, the rational thing to
do would be to sell you gold now for more money and agree to buy it back later for cheaper. And so when
this later date comes about, you will still have your gold and you will have made some risk-free profits.

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